Markets are facing very bad news in the morning in the form of weakness in Asian/global markets and crude inching ahead of 63$. We are likely to open lower and trade lower most of the day. The F&O expiry is also playing its own game. The only good news available at this point of time is FII flows in the last two days. We are likely to have support in the form of Gap in 12960 and 12977 is the 38.2% retracement for the rise 12315-13386. 13300-13400 gap is the upper resistance levels.
Postpone any buying for at least half a day or until any confirmation of recovery. If by any chance markets are closing near their days highs, then the strength in the bull trend is affirmed and we are likely to see higher levels in the coming days.
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a gap doesnt automatically mean a support or resistance level. a gap can be (and will be) steam rolled at will.
while sensex gaps have been consistently been filled for the past couple of years (the respect for sensex gaps is only since 2005) it isnt the case always. if you look at the gap filling patterns for the past year, you will see, gaps attract the price line, but dont stop them.
For someone giving daily commentary, i am surprised you dont mention oscillators. For example the slow stochastic indicator was at 96 on friday close for nifty. with such a high level, your forecasts like the following are at best highly optimistic and at worst irrational.
And it seems we have successfully tested the 13100 levels today. This is inline with the expectations and there is absolutely nothing to be worried as of now. This has given a nice opportunity to enter at lower levels and good platform for further rises
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