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Hi Friends,

I am not available in India until April 14. I am not able to track Indian Markets closely due to some commitments. Please, do check back after sometime for updates.

Thanks,
Bala

Pre-Open, Mar/30

Today is the last day of this week, this quarter and this financial year. On 31st Mar 2006 Sensex closed on 11280 and certainly we are closing above that. Sensex closed at 13786 on the last day of last quarter. Q-o-Q also we will be losing. Last week we had a positive weekly close after a 5 weeks of loss. To have a positive close, we need to cross 13285, which looks improbable to me but not impossible. And yesterday we closed at 12980. (Did you notice all are ending at in eighties?)

Sentiment is definitely week due to rising crude prices (at 66$). Inflation numbers are again in the radar at afternoon. Yesterdays rally in Dow was due to Energy stocks and defensive pharma stocks. Asian markets are trading very flat. Markets are likely to open flat/slightly upward bias and trade flat to lower.

Market is starting the new series very light. FIIs have bought hugely in Nifty options (Hedging!) otherwise very flat numbers in Nifty and stock futures. FIIs have sold in cash market as well. All in all, we don't have anything great to start with, but these kind of days have brought surprise element.

Closing Review - Mar/29

After 3 days of fall, much needed relief recovery for the markets today. Sensex went down 20 points(12832) below the 50% retracement (12852) of whole rise 12315 to 13386. Meanwhile, sensex had formed a kind of Island Cluster reversal pattern because it is consistently trading below the rising gap 12960-13070 created last week. This suggests the underlying weakness in the market. Todays recovery was aided by short covering in the last hour of trading due to F&O expiry for the march series. This was done by the strong performance by the heavyweights like ONGC, HLL etc.

Usually, in up-trending markets, the first target would be the previous high made. Our target should have been 13386 in this case. And in the first day of recovery, we would have crossed at least the 38.2% of the fall 13386-12832. This happens to be 13043. The 50% and 61.8% retracement are 13109 and 13174 respectively. Unless we cross 13174 convincingly, I doubt this pullback. We might be circling here itself until the Annual results are announced in April.

Pre-Open, Mar/29

We had another falling day on yesterday. This is the 3rd consecutive day of fall. We opened with a Gap down and in the last half an hour the fall has got worse. In this 3 days fall, we have almost given back 50% of the rise. For most part of the day. Nifty futures were trading between 3775-3780 in a 5 point band. That was not allowing any intra-day trader to make any money on Nifty futures. And in the last half an hour, 3775 Nifty futures broken.

Sensex is now precariously placed below 12900. 12725 is the last level which can bring bulls back from the on going fall. For the upside, 13061-13123-13185 likely to be the levels to watch out for.

FIIs have bought in cash markets for 289 Cr. And they have sold in nearly 90 Cr in Nifty futures and 660 Cr stock futures. We are seeing mixed Asian markets.

And I feel, the sugar stocks have come to the euphoria levels and traders might switch to another sector. Yesterday IT sector were beaten royally and that might continue.

Pre-Open, Mar/28

Markets are facing very bad news in the morning in the form of weakness in Asian/global markets and crude inching ahead of 63$. We are likely to open lower and trade lower most of the day. The F&O expiry is also playing its own game. The only good news available at this point of time is FII flows in the last two days. We are likely to have support in the form of Gap in 12960 and 12977 is the 38.2% retracement for the rise 12315-13386. 13300-13400 gap is the upper resistance levels.

Postpone any buying for at least half a day or until any confirmation of recovery. If by any chance markets are closing near their days highs, then the strength in the bull trend is affirmed and we are likely to see higher levels in the coming days.

Closing Review - Mar/26

After 1000 points rally in the sensex, bulls could not run further. As Tuesday would be off, people didn't want to carry their positions. And it seems we have successfully tested the 13100 levels today. This is inline with the expectations and there is absolutely nothing to be worried as of now. This has given a nice opportunity to enter at lower levels and good platform for further rises. What is in store for markets when they open on Wednesday? Well, we will see that on pre-open.

And after the Tea and Banks, it is the turn of Sugar stocks to come into the forefront in the rotation game. With always, "news follows market", sugar is having its day out there. It is likely to be continued for 1 or 2 more days.

Pre-Open, Mar/26

It is not going to be an easy day either for the bulls or for the bears. The interesting first half awaits for everyone. Bulls have the task of crossing the 13400 in BSE sensex and beyond that they can take this up to 13554. Bears might be trying to force the things other way if they can break the Friday's low of 13196. But I feel, it is the bulls who is going to win the show today.

FIIs have bought in cash market and sold stock futures. Looks like they have gone for the reverse arbitrage game. There are no news from Global front and that might help us to go little higher.

Nifty futures have turned into premium. The important level to watch out for is 3849 on the lower side. This week is the expiry week and tomorrow being a trading holiday, we better be watchful.